“Attack wins you games, defense wins you titles.” - Alex Ferguson.
It’s an age-old sports adage that has been the center of many discussions and championship games across all sports. What happens when an unstoppable force meets an unmovable object? The greatest sports matchups seemingly always comprise of any given league’s best offensive team going up against the best defensive team. And, depending on the sport you follow, the outcomes will differ. What is most consistent among each case study, each sport, each season for each team, is the need to score points against their opponent. And the way to do that comes, primarily, through an offense.
The 2022 season for the Wind Chill was one to remember. Aside from making the postseason and losing early in traditional Minnesota sports fashion, the Minnesota Wind Chill put up some great regular season numbers. The team’s defense was one of, if not the best, among the league at defensive conversion. There were games when their O-line was seemingly never on the field. And yet, they still couldn’t beat the Union in the postseason, falling to them and the Radicals in the regular season as well. And while losses are expected (only one team went undefeated in 2022), it still raises the question: Does defense win you games?
This has quickly become a hot topic debated by the whole cast of Wind Chill Talk. Even Tucker Hoffman, the statistician for the Wind Chill, weighed in on the topic while he was on the Wind Chill Talk podcast (episode 2). Jeph and Caine insist, incorrectly, that defense wins games. So I’m here to prove them wrong.
But before we can dive into the nitty gritty of the arguments, it is important to establish some baseline ideas:
Each team receives an opening pull two times, at the start of two quarters. This means that, all things being equal, each team should (without any breaks occurring) have an equal number of possession with the disc on offense.
Defense will refer to the designated defensive line, not just when the opponents have the disc (for example, on a turnover), and offense will refer to the team’s designated offensive line, not just when a team has the disc.
With those two things considered, you may be thinking, well obviously Minnesota’s defensive line won them games. They were the most prolific defense this year. And if it was that simple, the rest of this article wouldn't exist.
But it does. From here on out there are a lot of numbers being thrown around. If you want the conclusion, feel free to skip the stats and go to the last two paragraphs.
A Deep Dive Into the Numbers
The Wind Chill’s defense conversion percentage in the games that they won was impressively high, sitting at 58.2%. And in the four games they lost? 54.75%. Now I can hear Jeph and Caine already, “see, it's higher!” And while that may be true, it is only marginally higher; 3.45% is nothing. Not to mention, in every single game that they lost, the Wind Chill’s D-line conversion percentage was higher than their opponent’s. Their opponent’s average D-line conversion was 41.5%, a whopping 13.25% lower than the Wind Chill. This alone could be enough to convince an average fan that defense doesn’t win games. But Jeph and Caine aren’t your average fans. So let’s go deeper.
Minnesota’s O-line also played very well this season. In the games they won, their conversion percentage was 56.3%. And in the games they lost? An even 49%. A decrease of 7.3%. And in those 4 games, exactly 0 of them did the Minnesota Wind Chill have a higher O-line conversion than their opponents, whose average O-line conversion was 67.5%, a staggering 18.5% higher. In all but one of their wins, Minnesota’s O-line conversion was higher than their opponents'.
An AUDL Case Study: The New York Empire
And, if all of that wasn’t enough to convince you, let’s look at the only undefeated team this year: the New York Empire. This season, the Empire had the highest O-line conversion percentage: 71.3%. They did not have a game below 60% O-line conversion all year. But most importantly, they beat Chicago. Their head-to-head O-line percentages? Empire with 74, Chicago with 46. And, the final nail in the coffin: their D-line conversion percentage was 57.9%. In five of their 15 wins, New York's D-line actually had a lower conversion percentage than their opponents.
We can compare ultimate to other sports, as well, looking at examples of prolific defensive or offensive teams across all sports who have won their respective championships. Many NFL fanatics are the ones who will push back probably the most and dig their feet into the argument of a strong defensive team. And rightfully so. However, ultimate — while it does resemble football in many aspects — is foundationally more parallel to soccer or basketball. And in both of those sports, offense is king.
Offense Wins Games
So it’s clear now, unless you skipped to this part, that offense wins games. A team that has the most prolific offense goes undefeated and wins it all, and the team that relies on their defense doesn’t make it to championship weekend. Obviously in ultimate you need a healthy balance of both, stopping opponents' O-line attacks and converting break point opportunities when you get the chance. But it appears that going on the attack (while still having a reliable and sound defense) is key to carving a path to a title.
Yes, it is theoretically impossible to win a game without at least one break point. But the team that has a better offense gives up fewer opportunities, and the team that gives up fewer wins.
So, here’s your tl;dr: a good defense doesn’t win games, a bad offense loses them.
Comments