Most of you who are reading this are fans of Minnesota ultimate. And just that. Fans of Minnesota ultimate. Well this weekend, for the first time ever, Minnesota gets to play the Salt Lake Shred. If you’re like me, you’re probably wondering who are the Shred, what are they good at, and most importantly, can the Wind Chill beat them? Well, I went and watched the Shred’s games, highlight reels, looked at their stats, and came up with a few conclusions to share with you.
So who are the Shred?
A Glimpse into the Numbers
The Shred are arguably the second best team in the AUDL. They have my front runner for the MVP, Jordan Kerr, and have only lost one game this year, and it was to the New York Empire. They boast some pretty impressive stats. They have the second highest Red Zone conversion percentage, the highest hold percentage, and the second highest completion percentage. They are a team who makes very few mistakes, and even fewer mistakes when it counts the most. They also generate an impressive 10.38 blocks per game on average and have the highest average scores per game.
All of this might seem like a pretty simple picture of why they win, but it is so much more than just the numbers. Their players have remarkable chemistry. Partially due to the fact that three of them, the Yorgasons, are related. But also thanks to a remarkable coaching staff and team leadership. Jordan Kerr not only leads his team on the field (having a +/- of 89), but off the field as well. The Shred players all know that he is the guy who will pick them up if they make a mistake, and he is always there to make the next play, and to move on from the last one. Jordan Kerr leads his team in a way unlike any other player. He leads his team in assists and is second on goals scored. He is always looking to gain yards, whether it be through his pin point accurate throws, or his defense breaking cuts.
Exploiting the Shred’s Weaknesses
But enough about how good the Shred are, let’s get into how they can lose.
Firstly, they have an extremely strong starting 7 on both O-line and D-line. This has been Salt Lake’s bread and butter. But if you take away the bread, all that’s left is buttery fingers. Salt Lake gives up very few break points, but in the game they lost to the Empire, they had to utilize an O prime line (the offensive line that comes out after the O-line is broken). This O prime line was not as strong as the starting 7 and it was noticeable. The Empire did not hold back on these members of the Shred. The Empire wore out Salt Lake’s offensive lines and broke them enough times to win the game.
This will be the key to Minnesota’s success.
Minnesota has a unique characteristic of scoring streaks of break points. Once they get one, they tend to get another one or two or three right after. We saw it time and time again, from their first game of the season, until their last. It is best showcased in their second game against the Radicals and in their game against the Thunderbirds. In both of those games, Minnesota had a quarter where they outscored their opponents by four. So, while the Shred are not known to give up breaks, if Minnesota can get the ball rolling early, and weaken the Shred’s offensive lines, a victory is on the table.
Earlier I mentioned how Jordan Kerr leads his team with a +/- of 89, which is 30 higher than the next highest on his team. That might actually end up hurting the Shred. Jordan Kerr is by no means a ball hog, but he is the player his team looks to be open, and he is the player the team looks to move the disc forward to. Kerr is not the only reason the Shred have won all of their games, but if Minnesota can shut him down, or at least hinder the Shred’s ability to target him, this weakens their O-line significantly.
Kerr also has some very interesting stats to look out for. This season, he has only 5 hucks total. Compared to the player on the Shred with the second highest assists, Sean Connole, who has 21 hucks this season, Kerr doesn’t really play the long ball. When Kerr has the disc, he looks for quick, short upfield passes. Minnesota can attack these passes by playing through zones, clogging up the handler space, and poaching.
But the Shred have weaknesses beyond an individual player. The Shred have a lot of blind spots for end-of-quarter plays. In their closest games this season, and in their loss to the NY Empire, the Shred are not the last ones to score at the end of the quarter.
If Minnesota can showcase offensive efficiency at end-of-quarter scenarios, they have a chance to generate mini breaks for themselves by scoring at the end of the quarter and receiving the disc at the start of the next. Interestingly enough, Minnesota won a game this year against the Madison Radicals despite scoring fewer breaks than Madison because of end-of-quarter plays. Minnesota scored last at the end of three quarters, two of which they received the disc in, which gave them a two point lead against a Madison team who only scored one more break against Minnesota.
Because this is something the Shred are already prone to allowing, if Minnesota can capitalize on this, they can generate positive quarters on offense alone.
Minnesota’s Attack
The Shred have one more blind spot that might just be the nail in their Championship run’s coffin: a new defense.
It’s no doubt that New York’s defense tested, and beat, the Shred. But one thing the Shred might not be expecting is for Minnesota’s defense to do the same thing. The Shred are not the most huck-happy team, but they are in the league’s top half and by no means are they afraid to look long. But Minnesota plays some of the best huck defense in the league. Minnesota defenders are always ready to peel off their man coverage to give help defense on a huck, and Minnesota seemingly always has more players around in jump ball situations. An early break or two is all it takes for Minnesota to get their break train rolling, and all it takes for the Shred’s O-line and O prime line to get tired.
By the time the Shred have adapted to Minnesota’s unique huck coverage, the damage may already be done.
Finally, the Minnesota Wind Chill are going to need to clean up their game and bring at least one or two new tools to this semi-final matchup. Minnesota has a 63% hold rate, while the Shred have a 76%. If Minnesota wants to beat the Shred, it starts by bumping up those numbers. Part of the reason Minnesota’s hold rate is that much lower than the Shred is because Minnesota has a 74% red zone conversion rate to the Shred’s 86%. If Minnesota can clean up their offensive mistakes, they will certainly be chasing that Championship game.
So there you have it. That’s who the Shred are and how to beat them.
And for all the Salt Lake fans reading this, don’t forget to bundle up, because you’re going to be hit with a strong Wind Chill.
Comments